Year: 2020

Counterfactual thinking (CFT) is a concept in psychology that involves the human tendency to create possible alternatives to life events that have already occurred; to consider something that is contrary to what actually happened. It is a hypothetical, fictitious perspective on the past.

CFT uses phrases like “what if” and “if only.”

• • • If only I had buckled my seatbelt before the accident.
    • When aimed at President Kennedy, what if Lee Harvey Oswald’s gun had misfired?
    •  What if we had gone elsewhere on our vacation? We would have avoided the storm.

• CFT can be both positive and negative. Better alternatives are called upward counterfactuals; worse alternatives are downward counterfactuals. When reflecting on an incident, it can be played out for better or for worse. For example, a driver who causes a minor car accident might think: “If only I had swerved sooner, I could have avoided the accident.” In contrast, downward counterfactuals spell out the way a situation might have turned out worse; that is, the same driver could think: “If I had been driving faster, I might now be dead.”

Consider the emotions associated with CFT.

• • • Guilt — I feel guilty about neglecting my children when they were young; if only I had spent more time with them.
    • Regret — If only I had chosen a different career path.
    • Pity — If I hadn’t married so young, my life would have been better.
    • Resentment — What if my son had not been arresrted; things would be so different.
    • Anger and bitterness — If I had ignored my friend’s advice—buy an expensive car—I wouldn’t be in debt.
    • Hope — By analyzing my mistakes, I have learned from them and will be a wiser person.
    • Gratitude — Think what could have happened if my car had not been equipped with airbags.
    • Insight — If only I had studied more, I would have passed the exam.

I love facts—things that are indisputable—so I initially resisted CFT because counterfactual literally means contrary to the facts. What possible benefit can be derived from reimagining history? It is as it was. But CFT can be beneficial. It can: 

• • • Improve planning and goal-setting. “Let’s analyze our recent event and think about how we could have done it better.”
    • Help us learn, grow, and assess our behaviors. “If I could have that conversation again, I would change what I said.”
    • Give us hope. “I made a mistake, but I’ll not make that same mistake again.”
    • Boost creativity. “Let’s explore all the ways we could have handled that differently.”
    •  Help create different paths for the future. “Let’s change our strategy.”
    • Make us more proactive. “If I had been more involved, I could have influenced the outcome. Next time, I’ll be more aggressive.” 

Know when to stop a particular episode of CFT. There is nothing wrong with taking time to ponder or reflect upon past events, but it’s important to let them go at the right time. If you continue to linger on and develop a particular counterfactual story, it can morph into a fantasy—an “alternative life”—a make-believe world that is disconnected from reality. 

CFT should not be confused with embracing untruth—a claim, hypothesis, or belief that is contrary to the facts. We should never deny what actually happened. We can’t recreate history. 

Like many other things in life, CFT has its advantages and disadvantages.

Here’s a good article on counterfactual thinking — https://psychology.iresearchnet.com/social-psychology/social-cognition/counterfactual-thinking/

We’re experiencing an unprecedented crisis. Not since WW2 has the entire globe been affected by a debilitating enemy. Many people are fearful and anxious; everyone is troubled and uncertain. During this crisis it’s important that we respond properly to these strong, deeply felt emotions. Our initial and primary response must be to comfort one another.

Here are some practical suggestions on how to comfort other people.

Learn to sense when someone is hurting and be willing and available to help her.

We’re often unaware when people are hurting, some people are not forthcoming about how they feel. Sometimes circumstances will give us a clue (physical illness, death of a loved one, divorce or separation, loss of a job, or…a pandemic), but often it’s not so apparent. Be discerning and learn to recognize when people are in need of comforting

When you do sense that someone is hurting, are you willing to slow down and take the time to minister comfort or do you choose not to “go there”? You must be discerning, willing, and available.

When someone is hurting, if possible, enter her physical world.

While it’s possible to comfort someone over the phone or in a letter, it is best done in person and preferably in the hurting person’s space. If your friend is hurting, instead of suggesting, “Susan, it sounds like we need to visit. Can you drop by my office this afternoon?” it’s better to offer, “Susan, it sounds like we need to visit. Can I come by your home this afternoon?”

Enter her mental and emotional world.

Humans live in at least three “worlds” simultaneously: physical, mental and emotional. While it’s easy to determine where someone is physically, it’s more difficult to determine where she is mentally and emotionally. To comfort effectively it helps to understand what a person is thinking and feeling. Often, just asking directly – “How are you feeling? What are you thinking?” – is sufficient. At other times it takes more effort, particularly if the person is guarded and reticent to share.

Listen.

A good comforter must be a good listener. Let the one who is hurt do most of the talking; if you talk too much you’ll inevitably engage in unproductive responses.

When someone needs comfort, avoid these unproductive responses.

• • • Advice/instruction – “Let me give you some action steps to solve the problem.” Or, “Maybe next time that happens you should…”
    • Logic/reasoning – “Let me analyze the situation and tell you why it happened.” Or, “I think the reason this happened was because…”
    • Pep talk – “You’re a winner! You’ll make it through these tough times!” Or, “I’m sure tomorrow will be a better day.”
    • Minimize – “Sure it hurts, but get it in perspective, there’s a lot going on that’s good.” Or, “Aren’t you being overly sensitive?”
    • Anger – “That makes me so mad! They shouldn’t get away with that!” Or, “I’m so upset that you keep getting yourself hurt.”
    • Martyr’s complex – “I had something similar happen to me.” Or, “After the kind of day I had, let me tell you what hurt really feels like.”
    • Personal fear/anxiety – “I’m afraid that what has happened to you is going to affect my life too.”
    • Silence/neglect – Not saying anything.
    • Fix it – “I can’t believe that salesman talked to you like that. I’m calling the store right now and talking to his boss.” Or, “Sorry you had a flat tire on that lonely road. Tomorrow I’ll get a set of new tires.”
    • Spiritualize – “Well, you know that God will work all of this out for your good.”

While some of these responses may be appropriate to share after the hurting person has been comforted, they don’t work as the initial response.

Learn the “vocabulary of comfort.”

Often, we don’t know what to say to someone who is hurting because we’ve never developed an appropriate vocabulary. We don’t need to say a lot; a few choice sentences are sufficient. Here are some suggestions.

• • • I’m so sorry that you are hurting.
    • It saddens me that you’re hurting. I love you and care for you.
    • I’m committed to help you through this difficult time.
    • It saddens me that you felt ______ (embarrassed, rejected, belittled). I know that must have hurt.
    • I know that you’re hurting. I just wanted to be with you.

When speaking words of comfort, it’s also important that our tone of voice complement what is being said. Our speech should be warm, sincere and gentle.

Use appropriate non-verbal gestures.

A warm embrace or gentle touch can express comfort. Tears shed for someone else can convey love beyond words.

Pastor Jess Moody says this about comfort, “Have you ever taken a real trip down inside the broken heart of a friend? To feel the sob of the soul – the raw, red crucible of emotional agony? To have this become almost as much yours as that of your soul-crushed neighbor? Then, to sit down with him – and silently weep? This is the beginning of compassion.”

We continually come in contact with people who are hurting, not just during times of global crisis. Let’s minister grace and healing to them through the simple but effective gift of comfort.

 

Mary and I were in Israel when the Coronavirus became a worldwide pandemic. Our Lufthansa flight was cancelled but United Airlines came to our rescue and got us home. We immediately entered 14 days of quarantine which has now stretched to six weeks and counting. Who would have thought a month ago that our world would be so stymied by an invisible microbe. 

Let’s make the most of these days of isolation and uncertainty. Let’s reflect on what we can learn during these days. Here are some things I’ve been thinking about. They aren’t new thoughts, but each has become more clear.   

Everyone needs a hobby

When you’re sequestered at home 24/7 for many weeks, you end up with extra time on your hands. It helps to have life-enhancing diversions, better known as hobbies. Two of my hobbies are pedagogical art and viniculture. In the past few weeks I’ve been creating a picture for a family member, and I’ve been nurturing the 66 vines in my vineyard. I enjoy these hobbies so much  I often enter into the “flow”; I lose track of time and enter a different space. If but for a moment, I forget the virus. 

This is a good time to reevaluate and recalibrate our lives

During “normal” times we can become anesthetized by our routines and steady schedules. But extraordinary times prompt us to examine our status quo and imagine a better plan. For instance, many of my friends have told me they are enjoying a slower pace and in particular, evenings spent with family. Post-pandemic they’re going to recalibrate their lives, slow down their pace, and prioritize family-time.  

Friends are invaluable

Each day I’ve been at home I’ve called about 15 friends, just to check on them and visit. Some conversations have been short, others lengthy. I have found great joy just in hearing the unique voices of each friend. I have often said, “It’s so good to hear your voice.” 

Harvey Mackay wrote a book titled Dig Your Well Before You’re Thirsty in which he espoused the value of business-networking and the importance of developing your network before you need it. We should apply the same approach to developing deep friendships. Throughout life, be intentional about cultivating friendships, not only because it’s the right thing to do, but in doing so you’ll create a “human safety net” that will be available in times of trouble.

Sharing our lives with caring friends reduces our burdens and increases our joy. 

Reading good books is one of the joys of life 

We read for the joy and benefit of thinking another person’s thoughts. Few things in life are so rewarding. I’m an avid reader, and during this crisis I’ve had more time than usual to read. 

Here are three books I’ve read recently that I highly recommend.

• • Educated by Tara Westover — Tara grew up in rural Idaho. Her family were members of a cult; they avoided modern medicine and Tara was seventeen years old when she first she set foot in a classroom. But at age 27 she received her Ph.D. in history from Cambridge University. This book is her story.  
  • The Splendid and the Vile by Erik Larson — The best book I have read on WW2. It focuses on Winston Churchill’s life and leadership. Seldom have I read a history book that is a page turner, but this is that.
  • The Undoing Project by Michael Lewis — Amos Tversky and Danial Kahneman had one of the great collaborative friendships in the world of science. Their work transformed behavioral economics. This is their story.  

Good leadership is indispensable in times of crisis.

Years ago I coined a phrase regarding the importance of leadership: The health and growth of all organizations rises and falls on leadership. As a result of the crisis we’re in, I’m now adding a phrase: The health and growth of all organizations rise and falls on leadership and leadership is most needed during times of crisis. 

In Larson’s book (which I mentioned above), he makes it clear that were it not for the exemplary leadership of Winston Churchill during WW2, the Allies probably would have lost the war and civilization would be vastly different than it is today.

Even experts can’t agree on important issues

I’m always amazed and stymied by the fact that intelligent, informed people can hold such different opinions regarding fundamental issues. For instance, during a recession, one group of Noble-prize-winning economists advocate austerity as the antidote. Other Noble-prize-winning economists champion economic stimulus as the answer. They can’t both be right.

During this crisis we’ve heard some experts recommend total social isolation while others think the entire ordeal is overblown and that we’re causing unnecessary and irreparable harm to our economy.  

The pain of abusive and dysfunctional households must be immense during this time

I am blessed to have a healthy and loving household in which to be quarantined. Mary and I have our moments, but in general we love and trust each other and get along well. 

I feel sad for those who are quarantined in a troubled household. To spend 24/7 with an unhealthy or abusive family member must be intolerable. 

God is our refuge and strength in time of trouble

The Psalmist experienced pandemic-like crises throughout his life. He even wrote a song about how he endured those trials. The lyrics start with a bold statement of faith: “God is our refuge and strength, an ever-present help in trouble. Therefore we will not fear, though the earth give way and the mountains fall into the heart of the sea.” These are words to live by.

This too shall pass

An Eastern monarch asked his wise men to invent a phrase that would apply to all times and in all situations. After careful deliberation, they offered this statement: “And this too shall pass away.”

When Abraham Lincoln heard the story, he mused: “How much it expresses. How chastening in the hour of pride; how consoling in the depths of affliction.”

This time of crisis will pass. In some ways our world will never be the same because of it, but the intensity and restrictions of this season will fade.

What have you learned during this crisis?

Please share with me and fellow-subscribers, what you’re learning during this crisis. You can leave a reply below.

 

We’ve often heard that first impressions are important…and they are. But don’t neglect final impressions because we humans are highly influenced by endings. Regardless of how an experience started and played out, we remember most how it ended. 

There’s probably a more tactful example of this idea, but this anecdote—involving colonoscopies—is telling. The experiment was conducted by Redelmeier and Kahneman. 

“In the late 1980s, colonoscopies were painful, and not merely dreaded. The discomfort of the procedure dissuaded people from returning for another one. By 1990, colon cancer was killing sixty thousand people every year in the United States. Many of its victims would have survived had their cancer been detected at an early stage. Was it possible to alter their memory of the experience so that they might forget how unpleasant it was?

“To answer the question, Redelmeier ran an experiment on roughly seven hundred people over a period of a year. One group of patients had the colonoscope yanked out of their rear ends at the end of their colonoscopy without ceremony; the other group felt the tip of the scope lingering in their rectums for an extra three minutes. Those extra three minutes were not pleasant. They were merely less unpleasant than the other procedure. The patients in the first group were on the receiving end of an old-fashioned wham-bam-thank-you-ma’am colonoscopy; those in the second group enjoyed a sweeter, or less painful, ending. The sum total of pain experienced by the second group was, however, greater.

“An hour after the procedure, the researchers entered the recovery room and asked the patients to rate their experience. Those who had been give the less unhappy ending remembered less pain than did the patients who had not. Human beings who had never imagined that they might prefer more pain to less could nearly all be fooled into doing so. As Redelmeier put it, ‘Last impressions can be lasting impressions’” (from The Undoing Project, Michael Lewis, page 235). 

How can we take advantage of this insight? 

When planning an event, end with a nice, feel-good experience.

Several years ago I took 36 friends on a trip to Europe. On the last night of the trip we were staying in a convent in Rome. I had arranged for a professional tenor to sing a concert—just for our group—in the chapel prior to a four-course meal. It was an incredible ending to the trip; people are still talking about it. No one mentions the fact that it rained that last day in Rome, which made touring difficult. The nice ending of the trip trumped previous inconveniences.  

When an unfortunate event occurs, its impact can be minimized by orchestrating a positive ending. 

In 1989 Lexus introduced its first car, the flagship LS400. Their slogan was “the relentless pursuit of perfection.” But the car had flaws and all 8,000 vehicles were recalled. The cruise control failed to disengage, the plastic cover around the high-mounted rear brake light warped, and a poor connection between the alternator and battery could cause the battery to run down. 

This could have rendered Lexus stillborn—it’s first car was flawed. But the company took full responsibility for the problems and its dealers did the repair work at no charge to the customer. But here’s what made the big difference: An older couple had bought their LS400 in a major city and drove it to their small town which was 500 miles from the nearest dealership. When Lexus heard about the dilemma they flew mechanics to the small town and repaired the car at the couple’s home. The story went viral and became a memorable legend—“Lexus will always take care of their customers.”  

Think carefully about how you end all relational encounters: a conversation with a co-worker; a lunch meeting; a consulting contract; a worship service; an athletic event; a planning retreat, a dinner party. A well-orchestrated ending can make a significant difference.