Fallacy of the single cause

Plus – How to have Better Arguments

“No one thing is the cause.” Tolstoy, War and Peace 

We live in a tumultuous world. Inflation is out of control, the war in Ukraine, Covid refuses to go away, severe famine, extreme climate, and Kroger’s is out of my favorite sausage. Serious, complicated problems. And each problem affects the others.

There are no simple answers to these complicated problems because they are multifactorial. When seeking solutions, our tendency is to take a mental shortcut and look for one cause. But there is no single cause.

We have the same tendency when analyzing successes. It’s convenient and seemingly efficient to identify one reason why the United States is a strong country, or why Djokovic won the 2022 Wimbledon tennis tournament, but there are many reasons for these successes. There is no single cause.

Resist quickly coming to singular causes. Take the time to identify multiple reasons something has happened.

      • Approach everything in life as multifactorial; everything is complicated and interconnected.
      • Most issues are progressing; factors are constantly changing.
      • Don’t be too confident or smug about your conclusions. At best you’re probably not seeing the entire story; at worst, you’re wrong.
      • Don’t discount other people’s thoughts and explanations. They too, have trouble seeing all the pieces, but they may see a piece that you don’t.

 Life is complicated; if we want to see it clearly, we need to embrace its complexity.

On a completely different topic, here’s a good article on How to Have Better Arguments. 

Study success more than failure; learn from successful people

Do we learn more from failure or success?

We can learn from both, but the most valuable lessons come from studying successes.

Here’s why: In most situations, there are multiple ways to fail, but few ways to succeed. When you study failure you may learn what won’t work but not discover what will work. 

It’s also wise to try to duplicate a success experience before you invest heavily into adopting its fundamentals and scaling it up. The initial success may have been a one-off, or you may be confusing correlation with causation.

When studying success, look for basic fundamentals and avoid small, unique factors.

Also, learn from successful people. If you’re interested in investing your money, learn from Warren Buffet. He’s the most successful investor of all times. Don’t rely on the guy on radio who’s droning on and on about how to invest.

Herein is a “shortcut” to success—study and emulate successful people.

Attitude is (almost) everything

“The mind is its own place, and in itself can make a heaven of hell, a hell of heaven.” 

This line, from John Milton’s epic poem, “Paradise Lost” (1667), is spoken by Satan who is trying to make himself feel better about living in hell. He thinks that if he tries real hard, he can make hell seem as good as heaven.

Let’s avoid the theological implications of this phrase and just extract from it a lesson we can apply to our lives. 

Here’s my paraphrase of Milton’s sentence: Though we may not be able to change our circumstances, we can choose how we interpret and respond to our circumstances. Our attitude can be positive or negative. Regardless of your circumstances, you can choose to be an optimist or a pessimist. 

Consider the plight of Peruvians: I’ve been to Peru twice and can attest to the fact that Peruvians are kind, sociable, and happy—even though most live in poverty. Approximately 51% of homes in Peru do not have a refrigerator, and yet, according to the latest study from the Worldwide Independent Network (WIN), Peru has one of the highest happiness rates in the world.

Compare Peruvians with many middle- and upper-class Americans who are relatively safe and well-funded, but live pessimistic, despondent lives.  

Here’s a good example of what I’m talking about: I have a friend who struggles with multiple sclerosis. She moves with the help of a walker or wheelchair. She’s in constant pain. But she’s engaged in life and work and maintains a positive view of the future. (Karen, I admire you so much.)

I don’t mean to minimize the pain and difficulty that we all live with, and some people have more than others. I do want to underscore the choice we all have as to how we respond to difficult times and situations.

I have little patience for people who are perennially negative and pessimistic. I admire and enjoy being with people who are positive and optimistic.

Beware of being beguiled

“Charm is deceptive” (Proverbs 31:30). 

“Though their speech is charming, do not believe them” (Proverbs 26:25).

Some people are unintentionally charming. For instance, my grandson, Benjamin. He’s endearing, likable, funny, adorable, and appealing. He doesn’t try to be charming, he just is. This is the adjective form of the word.

But some people intentionally try to charm people, often to manipulate them. This is the verb form of the word. Beware of these people.

For instance:

      • We may be overly influenced by someone’s good looks; but just because someone is attractive, doesn’t mean she or he is competent, or possesses good character. Yet, studies indicate that attractive people are more likely to get hired for a job. Why is that so? 
      • We may be attracted to someone who talks a lot. But does verbosity imply anything other than…verbosity? 
      • We may be inordinately impressed by someone who has overcome a major obstacle. But is that single, valiant act reason to be entranced? 
      • Some people are overly impressed by professional athletes or movie stars. These individuals obviously excel at something, but does their narrow expertise make them an authority in other areas?

Leaders, when choosing team members don’t be misled by factors that don’t relate to job performance. Don’t be enamored by looks, talk, or bravado. Focus on qualities and experience that indicate competence and good character.

I started this post with Bible verses; I’ll end with one. 

“Don’t judge by his appearance or height… The Lord doesn’t see things the way you see them. People judge by outward appearance, but the Lord looks at the heart” (1 Samuel 16:7, NLT).