Don McMinn

Hopefully, the worst of the pandemic is behind us and we’ll soon return to normalcy. But what will the new-normal look like? How will the Coronavirus affect us in the longterm? 

I’ve asked eight friends to share their thoughts about how their specific industry will likely be affected (non-profit organizations, small businesses, parenting, local churches, retirement, public education, public transportation, and the U.S. economy).

Non-profit organizations—Rick Crocker, CEO, The Samaritan Inn

Obviously, the Coronavirus has painted with a very wide brushstroke and has played no favorites. The convulsive impact of this pandemic has been felt within the nonprofit sector too—ranging from a disruption of services, a significant drop in contributions, soaring demand for services, increased costs, to the cancellation of crucial fundraising events.

There is no knowing just how long this pandemic will last and it’s still too early to predict all the long-term impact.  Without doubling down on sweeping pronouncements, we can be assured of this pandemic will leave its indelible mark for a long time to come:

1. Sadly, some organizations may become insolvent and not survive.

2. For others, core programs may be virtualized and some service models may include tele-services.

3.  Because revenue streams have been and may continue to be impacted, many will evaluate their sources of revenue and seek to better diversify (relying less on grants or special event revenue).

3.  Some organizations may consider exploring opportunities to align, merge, or join forces with others to continue critical community services.

4.  Grantors (e.g. foundations, corporations) may re-design their grant programs/requirements.

One thing is clear: when this crisis fades away, there still will be a great need within our communities for the marvelous work of all our nonprofits.

Parenting—Priscilla Murphy, musician and mother of two

As I listen to my children pray every night for “the virus to stop spreading so things can go back to normal,” I am struck with the thought that this time in their lives is something they will never forget. It will have a profound effect in both positive and negative ways on their lives, and the lives of millions of other children and families around the world. 

Fear, stress, and anxiety are emotions all of us are experiencing to some degree in this time, and children are no exception. As the future unfolds, it will be important for parents to be aware of the fact that our families have been through a traumatic time, realizing this could very likely have long term physical, mental, and/or emotional effects on us and our children. 

However, I find encouragement in the fact that families are gaining a new perspective of what is important in life.  While they may miss all of their activities, they truly long for human connection. Daily dinners together, family walks, and game nights are forging closer relationships for many people. These close family relationships will be key to overcoming the difficulties that lie ahead.

Local churches—Christopher Cass, executive pastor and lifelong student of leadership

In my conversations with church leaders across the country one thing is abundantly clear: there is no going back to what we once considered normal. In fact, a large denomination recently published a projection that in a single state over 1,000 of their churches will go bankrupt by the end of the year.

In a practical sense I see three things that will likely change in the post Covid-19 era: 

1. 1. The disparity between large and small churches will increase as virtual small groups, once thought impossible, are now experiencing true community together. Large churches will take advantage of this new strategy to “plant” churches all over the globe. 
   2. I anticipate that many churches over the next 6-12 months will realign their staff away from program directors to relationship developers. Our faith is built through relationships and that has never been clearer.
   3. Sober minded planned abandonment – churches do many things, much of it beautiful, most of it beneficial, and some just because of emotional attachment to the past. My hope is that church leaders would be emboldened in this time to cut vast amounts of beneficial but non-essential/ineffective ministry from their budgets.

Small businesses—Lauren Clarke, founder and CEO of Turn

As a small business owner, these times are certainly scary. For those of us who have survived so far, we daily watch our bank accounts, forecast revenues with uncertainty, and reduce expenses wherever we can. My utmost concern as a leader is for my people, ensuring that my team is paid, safe, and well.

In my opinion, there are two clear benefits to being a small business now, compared to the relative safety and security of a large corporation. First, we can pivot, innovate, and execute much faster than a large ship. We can (and should) change more quickly and easily. Small “non-essential” businesses that have not adjusted to offer new products, or delivery methods will greatly suffer and may not survive. Tom Peters has said, “those who dislike change, are going to like irrelevance even less.” Get used to change and welcome the risk of innovation.

The second clear benefit of being a small business lies in harnessing the power of local community support. Loans and grants from the government cannot be counted on. Your local community and your customers are your best investors. Traditionally speaking, consumers don’t root for or defend ‘big business’ – they love small businesses. Verbalize and broadcast your underdog story and empower others to share it. Get creative in your storytelling and remind your local community why you are important.

U.S. Economy— David Holmes, former managing director at four global investment banks

Frightening unemployment numbers and sweeping uncertainty are roiling our once-robust economy. “Black Swan” shocks, like COVID-19 and an oil glut, distort short-term supply and demand dynamics and temporarily dislocate longer-term economic fundamentals. But, good signs are visible.

The economy remains structurally sound as underlying innovative business models are awaiting restoration, while others challenged by forced telecommuting discover new efficiencies. Decades-long gains in non-manufacturing productivity point to a robust post-virus rebound, and lately positive interplays between stock prices and bond yields, a tested information tool to gauge forward sentiment, are hopeful. Penned-up consumers are poised to launch a massive spending wave. Meanwhile, inflation remains abated (momentarily ignoring torrential government monetary and fiscal initiatives), and interest rates remain low. Oil spot-prices are a mixed story, but longer-dated futures contracts appear more rational, and low gas prices will spur faster re-growth. Expect serious China-trade implications to catalyze the repatriation of key manufacturing jobs. Finally, the run-up in national debt must be confronted eventually – but thankfully the government is borrowing money and buying oil at historically huge discounts. 

American entrepreneurship, innovation, productivity, and spirit will insure that happier times will soon return. 

Public Transportation—Robert Horton, sustainability executive in aviation

Transportation Impacts – mid pandemic

• • • Transportation systems played a pivotal role in accelerating the spread of COVID-19 around the world.
    • Current mindset of passengers reveals extreme uncertainty and mistrust combined with an unwillingness to travel.
    • Passengers and employees are highly conscious about environmental conditions and travel disruptions are tolerated.
    • Social distancing is desired and culturally expected.

Transportation Impacts – post pandemic

• • • Restoring trust is key to allowing the world to return to a normal state, but improvements to status quo are expected.
    • Airports must be equipped to screen travelers who are asymptomatic or travelers who have masked, subclinical and undetectable symptoms.
    • As time passes, passengers will still be conscious about environmental conditions and social distancing but less tolerable about inconveniences.
    • For example, following 9/11 passengers tolerated enhanced security screenings to ensure they were “safe” but 19 years later, they become frustrated with long TSA lines.

Public education—Pete Hazzard, district  administrator, Frisco ISD, Texas

True learning cannot take place in isolation. The holistic education of a child goes beyond academic development.  Social-emotional learning is an important part of creating a well-rounded child capable of operating effectively in the 21^st century workforce. While COVID-19 has forced educators to create asynchronous systems of remote eLearning in a short amount of time, this system is certainly not the ideal and is not sustainable.

There are certainly tangible benefits to the brief interruption in the educational environment. Educators and administrators have learned to communicate, coordinate, and collaborate in new and innovative ways. Technological exploration and creative problem solving has allowed educators to develop new skill sets that will last far beyond the current pandemic. However, technology, which has certainly benefited educators over the last few weeks, can never replace the relational aspect of knowing every student by both name and need.

Certainly, there will be gaps in student learning that will have to be addressed when face to face instruction resumes.  To me, the true beauty lies in the renewed sense of appreciation for teachers and our educational system that has resulted from this brief time away.

Phil Bruce—retired from 30-year career with IBM

Lonely. Retired people as a segment of the population probably suffer more from loneliness than any other. Young singles have their social media. Married couples with kids at home don’t know the meaning of the word. Older, retired folks can be quite isolated by the quarantine, especially single retirees. 

The lucky retired have developed some computer skills and are perhaps active on social media or attend their church or neighborhood groups with Zoom but for many, a trip to the grocery store is the event of the week. In the future, kind friends or relatives should gift a computer and skills to take the edge off lonely.  

For the retired with “underlying health issues” the pandemic is especially frightening. They’ve seen the statistics on the news of whom is dying from the virus. Their isolation could be more permanent than they’d wish. That realization weighs heavily. 

But most retired folks have significant concerns for the world and the economy that their kids and grandkids will face. They probably agree with Dan Patrick, Texas Lieutenant Governor, that personal sacrifices for their grandkids’ benefit are a reasonable trade-off to them. 

What are your thoughts? How will your life and our society be permanently impacted by this crisis?

Counterfactual thinking (CFT) is a concept in psychology that involves the human tendency to create possible alternatives to life events that have already occurred; to consider something that is contrary to what actually happened. It is a hypothetical, fictitious perspective on the past.

CFT uses phrases like “what if” and “if only.”

• • • If only I had buckled my seatbelt before the accident.
    • When aimed at President Kennedy, what if Lee Harvey Oswald’s gun had misfired?
    •  What if we had gone elsewhere on our vacation? We would have avoided the storm.

• CFT can be both positive and negative. Better alternatives are called upward counterfactuals; worse alternatives are downward counterfactuals. When reflecting on an incident, it can be played out for better or for worse. For example, a driver who causes a minor car accident might think: “If only I had swerved sooner, I could have avoided the accident.” In contrast, downward counterfactuals spell out the way a situation might have turned out worse; that is, the same driver could think: “If I had been driving faster, I might now be dead.”

Consider the emotions associated with CFT.

• • • Guilt — I feel guilty about neglecting my children when they were young; if only I had spent more time with them.
    • Regret — If only I had chosen a different career path.
    • Pity — If I hadn’t married so young, my life would have been better.
    • Resentment — What if my son had not been arresrted; things would be so different.
    • Anger and bitterness — If I had ignored my friend’s advice—buy an expensive car—I wouldn’t be in debt.
    • Hope — By analyzing my mistakes, I have learned from them and will be a wiser person.
    • Gratitude — Think what could have happened if my car had not been equipped with airbags.
    • Insight — If only I had studied more, I would have passed the exam.

I love facts—things that are indisputable—so I initially resisted CFT because counterfactual literally means contrary to the facts. What possible benefit can be derived from reimagining history? It is as it was. But CFT can be beneficial. It can: 

• • • Improve planning and goal-setting. “Let’s analyze our recent event and think about how we could have done it better.”
    • Help us learn, grow, and assess our behaviors. “If I could have that conversation again, I would change what I said.”
    • Give us hope. “I made a mistake, but I’ll not make that same mistake again.”
    • Boost creativity. “Let’s explore all the ways we could have handled that differently.”
    •  Help create different paths for the future. “Let’s change our strategy.”
    • Make us more proactive. “If I had been more involved, I could have influenced the outcome. Next time, I’ll be more aggressive.” 

Know when to stop a particular episode of CFT. There is nothing wrong with taking time to ponder or reflect upon past events, but it’s important to let them go at the right time. If you continue to linger on and develop a particular counterfactual story, it can morph into a fantasy—an “alternative life”—a make-believe world that is disconnected from reality. 

CFT should not be confused with embracing untruth—a claim, hypothesis, or belief that is contrary to the facts. We should never deny what actually happened. We can’t recreate history. 

Like many other things in life, CFT has its advantages and disadvantages.

Here’s a good article on counterfactual thinking — https://psychology.iresearchnet.com/social-psychology/social-cognition/counterfactual-thinking/

We’re experiencing an unprecedented crisis. Not since WW2 has the entire globe been affected by a debilitating enemy. Many people are fearful and anxious; everyone is troubled and uncertain. During this crisis it’s important that we respond properly to these strong, deeply felt emotions. Our initial and primary response must be to comfort one another.

Here are some practical suggestions on how to comfort other people.

Learn to sense when someone is hurting and be willing and available to help her.

We’re often unaware when people are hurting, some people are not forthcoming about how they feel. Sometimes circumstances will give us a clue (physical illness, death of a loved one, divorce or separation, loss of a job, or…a pandemic), but often it’s not so apparent. Be discerning and learn to recognize when people are in need of comforting

When you do sense that someone is hurting, are you willing to slow down and take the time to minister comfort or do you choose not to “go there”? You must be discerning, willing, and available.

When someone is hurting, if possible, enter her physical world.

While it’s possible to comfort someone over the phone or in a letter, it is best done in person and preferably in the hurting person’s space. If your friend is hurting, instead of suggesting, “Susan, it sounds like we need to visit. Can you drop by my office this afternoon?” it’s better to offer, “Susan, it sounds like we need to visit. Can I come by your home this afternoon?”

Enter her mental and emotional world.

Humans live in at least three “worlds” simultaneously: physical, mental and emotional. While it’s easy to determine where someone is physically, it’s more difficult to determine where she is mentally and emotionally. To comfort effectively it helps to understand what a person is thinking and feeling. Often, just asking directly – “How are you feeling? What are you thinking?” – is sufficient. At other times it takes more effort, particularly if the person is guarded and reticent to share.

Listen.

A good comforter must be a good listener. Let the one who is hurt do most of the talking; if you talk too much you’ll inevitably engage in unproductive responses.

When someone needs comfort, avoid these unproductive responses.

• • • Advice/instruction – “Let me give you some action steps to solve the problem.” Or, “Maybe next time that happens you should…”
    • Logic/reasoning – “Let me analyze the situation and tell you why it happened.” Or, “I think the reason this happened was because…”
    • Pep talk – “You’re a winner! You’ll make it through these tough times!” Or, “I’m sure tomorrow will be a better day.”
    • Minimize – “Sure it hurts, but get it in perspective, there’s a lot going on that’s good.” Or, “Aren’t you being overly sensitive?”
    • Anger – “That makes me so mad! They shouldn’t get away with that!” Or, “I’m so upset that you keep getting yourself hurt.”
    • Martyr’s complex – “I had something similar happen to me.” Or, “After the kind of day I had, let me tell you what hurt really feels like.”
    • Personal fear/anxiety – “I’m afraid that what has happened to you is going to affect my life too.”
    • Silence/neglect – Not saying anything.
    • Fix it – “I can’t believe that salesman talked to you like that. I’m calling the store right now and talking to his boss.” Or, “Sorry you had a flat tire on that lonely road. Tomorrow I’ll get a set of new tires.”
    • Spiritualize – “Well, you know that God will work all of this out for your good.”

While some of these responses may be appropriate to share after the hurting person has been comforted, they don’t work as the initial response.

Learn the “vocabulary of comfort.”

Often, we don’t know what to say to someone who is hurting because we’ve never developed an appropriate vocabulary. We don’t need to say a lot; a few choice sentences are sufficient. Here are some suggestions.

• • • I’m so sorry that you are hurting.
    • It saddens me that you’re hurting. I love you and care for you.
    • I’m committed to help you through this difficult time.
    • It saddens me that you felt ______ (embarrassed, rejected, belittled). I know that must have hurt.
    • I know that you’re hurting. I just wanted to be with you.

When speaking words of comfort, it’s also important that our tone of voice complement what is being said. Our speech should be warm, sincere and gentle.

Use appropriate non-verbal gestures.

A warm embrace or gentle touch can express comfort. Tears shed for someone else can convey love beyond words.

Pastor Jess Moody says this about comfort, “Have you ever taken a real trip down inside the broken heart of a friend? To feel the sob of the soul – the raw, red crucible of emotional agony? To have this become almost as much yours as that of your soul-crushed neighbor? Then, to sit down with him – and silently weep? This is the beginning of compassion.”

We continually come in contact with people who are hurting, not just during times of global crisis. Let’s minister grace and healing to them through the simple but effective gift of comfort.

 

Mary and I were in Israel when the Coronavirus became a worldwide pandemic. Our Lufthansa flight was cancelled but United Airlines came to our rescue and got us home. We immediately entered 14 days of quarantine which has now stretched to six weeks and counting. Who would have thought a month ago that our world would be so stymied by an invisible microbe. 

Let’s make the most of these days of isolation and uncertainty. Let’s reflect on what we can learn during these days. Here are some things I’ve been thinking about. They aren’t new thoughts, but each has become more clear.   

Everyone needs a hobby

When you’re sequestered at home 24/7 for many weeks, you end up with extra time on your hands. It helps to have life-enhancing diversions, better known as hobbies. Two of my hobbies are pedagogical art and viniculture. In the past few weeks I’ve been creating a picture for a family member, and I’ve been nurturing the 66 vines in my vineyard. I enjoy these hobbies so much  I often enter into the “flow”; I lose track of time and enter a different space. If but for a moment, I forget the virus. 

This is a good time to reevaluate and recalibrate our lives

During “normal” times we can become anesthetized by our routines and steady schedules. But extraordinary times prompt us to examine our status quo and imagine a better plan. For instance, many of my friends have told me they are enjoying a slower pace and in particular, evenings spent with family. Post-pandemic they’re going to recalibrate their lives, slow down their pace, and prioritize family-time.  

Friends are invaluable

Each day I’ve been at home I’ve called about 15 friends, just to check on them and visit. Some conversations have been short, others lengthy. I have found great joy just in hearing the unique voices of each friend. I have often said, “It’s so good to hear your voice.” 

Harvey Mackay wrote a book titled Dig Your Well Before You’re Thirsty in which he espoused the value of business-networking and the importance of developing your network before you need it. We should apply the same approach to developing deep friendships. Throughout life, be intentional about cultivating friendships, not only because it’s the right thing to do, but in doing so you’ll create a “human safety net” that will be available in times of trouble.

Sharing our lives with caring friends reduces our burdens and increases our joy. 

Reading good books is one of the joys of life 

We read for the joy and benefit of thinking another person’s thoughts. Few things in life are so rewarding. I’m an avid reader, and during this crisis I’ve had more time than usual to read. 

Here are three books I’ve read recently that I highly recommend.

• • Educated by Tara Westover — Tara grew up in rural Idaho. Her family were members of a cult; they avoided modern medicine and Tara was seventeen years old when she first she set foot in a classroom. But at age 27 she received her Ph.D. in history from Cambridge University. This book is her story.  
  • The Splendid and the Vile by Erik Larson — The best book I have read on WW2. It focuses on Winston Churchill’s life and leadership. Seldom have I read a history book that is a page turner, but this is that.
  • The Undoing Project by Michael Lewis — Amos Tversky and Danial Kahneman had one of the great collaborative friendships in the world of science. Their work transformed behavioral economics. This is their story.  

Good leadership is indispensable in times of crisis.

Years ago I coined a phrase regarding the importance of leadership: The health and growth of all organizations rises and falls on leadership. As a result of the crisis we’re in, I’m now adding a phrase: The health and growth of all organizations rise and falls on leadership and leadership is most needed during times of crisis. 

In Larson’s book (which I mentioned above), he makes it clear that were it not for the exemplary leadership of Winston Churchill during WW2, the Allies probably would have lost the war and civilization would be vastly different than it is today.

Even experts can’t agree on important issues

I’m always amazed and stymied by the fact that intelligent, informed people can hold such different opinions regarding fundamental issues. For instance, during a recession, one group of Noble-prize-winning economists advocate austerity as the antidote. Other Noble-prize-winning economists champion economic stimulus as the answer. They can’t both be right.

During this crisis we’ve heard some experts recommend total social isolation while others think the entire ordeal is overblown and that we’re causing unnecessary and irreparable harm to our economy.  

The pain of abusive and dysfunctional households must be immense during this time

I am blessed to have a healthy and loving household in which to be quarantined. Mary and I have our moments, but in general we love and trust each other and get along well. 

I feel sad for those who are quarantined in a troubled household. To spend 24/7 with an unhealthy or abusive family member must be intolerable. 

God is our refuge and strength in time of trouble

The Psalmist experienced pandemic-like crises throughout his life. He even wrote a song about how he endured those trials. The lyrics start with a bold statement of faith: “God is our refuge and strength, an ever-present help in trouble. Therefore we will not fear, though the earth give way and the mountains fall into the heart of the sea.” These are words to live by.

This too shall pass

An Eastern monarch asked his wise men to invent a phrase that would apply to all times and in all situations. After careful deliberation, they offered this statement: “And this too shall pass away.”

When Abraham Lincoln heard the story, he mused: “How much it expresses. How chastening in the hour of pride; how consoling in the depths of affliction.”

This time of crisis will pass. In some ways our world will never be the same because of it, but the intensity and restrictions of this season will fade.

What have you learned during this crisis?

Please share with me and fellow-subscribers, what you’re learning during this crisis. You can leave a reply below.